05 August 2010.
It is time to Balkanise Pakistan, says Michael Hughes. In his article titled Balkanising Pakistan: A collective National Security Strategy the author has articulated the “Why” of his suggestion through a compelling argument. This has serious ramifications for the region, especially for India.
The basic proposal of fragmentation is to break off and allow Afghanistan to absorb Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP or Khyber Pashtunwala) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which would unite the Pashtun tribes. In addition, the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh would become independent sovereign states, leaving Punjab as a standalone entity.
Then there is this brilliant piece on Balkanisation in Daily Times of Pakistan. Again there are a host of articles on “America at War” which point towards the real and live possibility of Pakistan standing on the verge of Balkanisation. As per analyst, Yugoslavia would be a tame history when compared to this violent process of fragmentation of Pakistan.
Opinions in Pakistan, including that of Imran Khan, accuse USA, Israel and India colluding to give shape to this policy of breaking Pakistan to make it more governable. There are voices both for and against the motion for reversing the defective world order put in place while partitioning the region. Maybe, Pakistan and Afghanistan are working their way towards redrawing these boundaries.
Then there is the reality of a Baloch struggle and a Sindhi subjugation playing at the centre of the existence of Pakistan. As per Hughes it has become important to Break Pakistan to Fix It:
The argument for Balkanizing Pakistan or, more specifically, fragmenting the Islamic Republic so it’s easier to police and economically develop, has been on the table since Pakistan’s birth in 1947 when the country was spit out of a British laboratory. And lately, the concept is looking more appealing by the day, because as a result of flawed boundaries combined with the nexus between military rule and Islamic extremism, Pakistan now finds itself on a rapid descent toward certain collapse and the country’s leaders stubbornly refuse to do the things required to change course. But before allowing Pakistan to commit state suicide, self-disintegrate and further destabilize the region, the international community can beat them to the punch and deconstruct the country less violently.
It is common knowledge that Pakistan is a fast failing state. The Foreign Policy magazine has placed it at number ten and the dysfunctions imbued in a Jihadi mindset are plunging it deeper into darkness. The inherent instability borne out of its history, geography and a fast radicalising society under direct or indirect military dictatorships is accentuated by the Islamic state aspiration. A combination of these factors makes Pakistan extremely fragile.
Far from being a “Land of the Pure,” Pakistan is one of the clearest demonstrations of the futility of defining a nation by religion, and one of the textbook failures of a state and a society. Pakistan deteriorated throughout the decades because of its focus on building the military and developing Islamic extremist groups to use as weapons in their eternal obsessive struggle against India. It’s true the U.S. helped Pakistan build these groups since the beginning of the Cold War, but America learned on 9/11 they had created a Frankenstein monster that now needed to be slain.
At the heart of Michaels argument is the theory that when seen in light of its above fault lines, Pakistan’s close links with the al Qaeda are the basic recipe for disaster. He argues that Pakistan which has nurtured the Haqqani group for nearly three decades, and which Kayani is projecting as part of the solution to Afghanistan, is in effect the al Qaeda. Discerning readers need little convincing on that account.
This would put Obama back to the starting block of this war – to root out al Qaeda. Obama may have pre judged the situation in announcing a time table for withdrawal. This has accelerated the machinations of Pakistan Army and ISI in hedging their bets in projecting Haqqani, which in Michael’s words IS the al Qaeda. So in this game Kayani is playing, he would be able to put al Qaeda at the centre of Islamic radicalisation in Af Pak region.
A situation worse than when Bush led America to war on terror in the region. The ripples of this demonisation of the region would be felt world wide. Pakistan, the Islamic State” would be in the eye of the storm. By then, whether the internal discord and the warring militant groups permit Pakistan to remain a country, would be a tough ask.
Pakistan has had a close relationship with the Haqqanis for over 30 years, who are still seen as a crucial anti-Indian asset. So, for nine years the Pakistanis protected the Haqqanis and claimed ignorance as to the whereabouts of Mullah Omar, Osama bin Laden and the Quetta Shura. Nine years, nearly $300 billion dollars and 1900 dead coalition soldiers later, the U.S. has officially verified that the entire war effort has been focused on the wrong side of the mountains.
Then there is the deep involvement of Pakistan in spreading terror and Intifada in India. This has been a work in progress for the last three decades ever since East Pakistan revolted to de link itself from Pakistan, with Indian help. What was started by Zia Ul Haq as Operation Topac has today radicalised Pakistan to a point of no return. The mullah – military – militant nexus has speed ed up the process of Balkanisation of Pakistan. The military’s India Centric mindset has forced it to nurture a range of terror groups which over the years have gradually merged into the concept of al Qaeda. That Kayani has any real hold over these diverse groups,each with its own agenda, is a moot point. But what appears certain is the capacity of these groups to ferment trouble between India and Pakistan. An aspect deliberated in the previous post, The Larger Game.
Pakistan today is on the self destruct mode. Its stability is what most would want especially the countries in the region. However, it appears that the current masters of Pakistan’s destiny are hell bent upon proving their Islamic State status to the Islamic world. Armed with nuclear weapons, they may become the face of Political Islam but if this continues, they may be wiped off the face of the subcontinent as a country.
This post has a clear narrative – Pakistan needs to prevent destabilisation of Afghanistan to prevent its own balkanisation. If it fails to do so, the world community will have to do so.
If this is not done, India stands to lose heavily in such a division. Knowing the wounded streak of the Punjabis, a dominant force in the Army, this would radicalise the region and result in an inferno difficult to control. America, or for that matter the West, would beat a hasty retreat where South Asia would become the world’s most dangerous place to live in – ie if it isn’t already.
Amongst all this America, which is desperately trying to prevent the collapse of Pakistan, has launched a major PR exercise to win hearts and minds in Pakistan - something which successive regimes in Pakistan have failed to achieve. However, it would be approprite to sign off with this thought
The U.S. cannot save Pakistan; only Pakistanis can do that.
Unless they accept responsibility for their own future, Pakistan will have no future.
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