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IPI vs. TAPI
Maha Atal
Underneath those Asian pipeline abbreviations lies a battle, with U.S. influence a likely loser
India, Pakistan and Iran will sign a deal this month to build a natural gas pipeline to help feed the subcontinent's desperate need for energy, a major blow to American sanctions against Tehran and a defeat for U.S. influence in South Asia.
The $7.5 billion, 1,700-mile Peace Pipeline (IPI) project would bring gas from the South Pars Gas Fields through Baluchistan (in western Pakistan) into India. The project has stalled multiple times since first proposed in 1994 because of political tensions, changing governments, conflicts over prices and most recently, the weight of American opposition.
The agreement comes amid growing tension between the U.S. and Iran, which the U.S. has sought to isolate from the world community. But rising fuel prices and a soaring Indian economy seem to have outweighed America's desires--as well as a rival plan for a U.S.-backed pipeline from Turkmenistan.
Though Iran and Pakistan finalized a deal earlier this spring, India had remained noncommittal. IPI advocates say the reluctance is due to American pressure: The 2006 U.S.-India nuclear agreement puts pressure upon India to cooperate with American foreign policy goals, and bolstering the Iranian economy through oil imports is hardly on Washington's to-do list.
Riskier, perhaps, is Pakistan's fallback: to bring the gas down the Himalayas into China, since Islamabad gets transit fees regardless of where the pipeline ends. Though actually building a line to China would be difficult, "Pakistan is smart to talk about China," says Thomas Pickering, former U.S. Ambassador to India and Russia.
The China threat seems to have jostled India. After talks with Iranian officials in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, India's Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Murli Deora made a surprise announcement on June 23 that he, too, is ready to move forward. Since his announcement, Deora says, he's been "continuously meeting" with Iranian and Pakistani officials and expects a formal agreement by month's end.
Meanwhile, the American-backed alternative languishes. The TAPI plan, to bring gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan and Pakistan into India, would keep Iran out and diminish Russian influence in Central Asia.
But projected costs have doubled since 2002 to $7.6 billion, though energy experts remain skeptical of the new number given that the pipeline would pass directly through war-torn Afghanistan. Former World Bank economist and energy expert John Foster believes TAPI proponents are underestimating their budget in order to compete more aggressively with the IPI plan. "There are some games going on with that number," he says.
There are doubts, too, about TAPI's output: The Asian Development Bank, financiers for the project, has yet to reveal data regarding Turkmenistan's energy resources. As a result, says Deora, "TAPI is at a very primitive stage. We're not even sure if there's gas there, or how much." India's growing economy, he says, cannot wait any longer for an energy lifeline. India accounted for a third of the 3% rise in global energy consumption in 2007.
In today's economy, says Ambassador Pickering, "energy is increasingly more important to development," not only as a resource for cars and computers but also as a powerful commodity market. For Pakistan the IPI would bring $200 million a year in transit fees and give it a form of strategic advantage over its larger, wealthier neighbor.
American opposition or not, the IPI project seems to be headed for a formal contract signing this summer. On paper India and Pakistan may have addressed U.S. objections by allowing each nation to organize its own leg of pipeline construction. In previous rounds of talks, Gazprom and British Petroleum (nyse: BP - news - people ) surfaced as potential bidders.
Behind the scenes, however, officials admit that the South Asian nations are simply ignoring American directives. Dr. Noor Jehan Panezai, M.P., who represents the region in western Pakistan where the pipeline will run, welcomes the plan as an employment package for her constituents. "Indians and Pakistanis," she says, "will choose our own projects. We have decided that the U.S. has no business in our problems."
Given the crucial role India and Pakistan play in American strategy, experts say it's unlikely that Washington will punish its allies politically or financially for dealing with Iran. Until the IPI deal is inked, however, the U.S. may exert its best efforts behind the scenes. "The current Administration," says Pickering, "might try to impose conditions on India, and I'm sure they are trying to dissuade Pakistan."
If the IPI deal wins out, it will send an uplifting message about Indo-Pak collaboration but also a sobering one about the U.S.' international clout.
http://www.forbes.com/global/2008/0721/028.html
Baloch and the US interests are interlinked for IPI, let those who need this project first ask Baloch people will they allow this project for sure the answer is NO!!! If India needs gas than they must help Baloch to get their independence the way they helped Bangladesh otherwise let them burn cow dung as energy because Baloch will not under any circumstances will allow this pipe go through Baloch lands, without taking care the Baloch national interests and Baloch will fight as united force to defeat the enemies heinous designs against Baloch interests, Baloch know perfectly well how to defend their national interests. |
