By SHAHID HAMID
Prior to 2005 the 'conflict' in Balochistan was probably confined to seven percent of its area including, in the main, parts of Kohlu and Dera Bugti districts whereas now it has engulfed about half the Province including many urban areas. The disaffected include large numbers of youth. This raises a question mark over the 'claimed' success, as also the future, of the so-called three-pronged strategy viz political dialogue, socio-economic development and selective use of force.
The military operation has eliminated several farrari camps, recovered substantial arsenals of weapons and killed or driven into exile hundreds of militants. On the other side of the balance-sheet is the fact that acts of sabotage and subversion such as blowing up of gas pipelines, actual or attempted derailment of trains, kidnapping of government functionaries and rocket attacks on government installations, continue unabated and it is debatable whether the number of such incidents is increasing, decreasing or remains steady. In the process the security forces viz the Army and the FC have suffered casualties numbering in the hundreds.
On the development front much has been and is being done including the building of the Sabakzai and Miani dams, the on-going construction of the Kachhi Canal and the Gwadar Port, the Chamalang Coal Mines Project, the cadet schools at Mastung and a number of other locations and various other educational and technical training projects but the expected favourable impact has been negated by the lack of a meaningful political dialogue with dis-affected elements especially after the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti.
A most worrisome aspect of this conflict is the growing number of attacks on Settlers (seven percent of Balochistan's population) which could by themselves proves to be a grave threat to the cohesion of the Federation.
One of the proposed solutions for meeting Baloch demands is to increase the quantum of provincial autonomy by deleting most if not all items in the Concurrent Legislative List. Whilst this is desirable, not only for Balochistan but for the other provinces also, it may not yield the desired results for a number of reasons. First and foremost, the real problem in federal-provincial relations is that the Federation does not respect provincial autonomy even in matters that fall within the powers of the Provinces. Take, for example, the matter of local government. This is a provincial subject but the district government system has been imposed on all the Provinces including Balochistan, by the Federation on the basis of proposals formulated by the National Reconstruction Bureau. Secondly, real and meaningful provincial autonomy will not come till each Province, including Balochistan, has direct control of substantially more sources of revenue.
A World Bank funded study, as also studies made for the 6th National Finance Commission, show that 93 percent of the combined revenues of the federal, provincial and district governments are collected by the federal government whose own expenditure accounts for 72 percent of the whole. The provincial and district governments spend 28 percent of the total expenditures but raise only 7 percent of the combined revenues.
75 percent of the expenditures of provincial and district governments are met through transfer of funds from the Federal Finance Ministry as determined by the awards of the National Finance Commission. In India, their States finance more than 60 percent of their expenditures from their own revenue collections. In the case of Balochistan the percentage of expenditures met from federal transfers is even higher than the average for the Provinces because of the narrower base of most provincial taxes.
Further, as Balochistan's share in the divisible pool of taxes is insufficient to meet all its expenditures the federal transfers have always included outright grants to meet the budget deficits thus making Balochistan a 'deficit' province. The Baloch are aggrieved by the fact that they are not paid the proper 'price' for their gas and other minerals. They are therefore doubly resentful of being treated as a deficit province. There is no substitute for 'ownership' of your own sources of revenue. Only then there can be true appreciation of the development projects in your area.
There can be little doubt that productive and result-oriented dialogue with political stakeholders in Balochistan, both inside and the outside the Parliamentary system, is the way forward and not the military operations which should be discontinued except as aid to civil power and as required to counter subversion by enemy or alien agents. The dialogue process requires for its initiation the release of political prisoners and compensation for innocent civilian casualties. The steps taken in this regard in recent days are to be welcomed. However, a word of caution is in order.
If certain elements continue to spurn and reject the dialogue process, and also continue to indulge in acts of sabotage and subversion, the governments, both federal and provincial, cannot allow their writ to erode and erode. It is important that the policy to be followed in this behalf should be worked out with care and precision and that it should be publicly announced and proclaimed so that all elements are clear that the unity of the Federation will not be allowed to be compromised.
One of the difficulties in negotiating a settlement of the various Baloch issues is the question with whom to negotiate, how and where. All members of the Balochistan Assembly are part of the coalition government bar one. The real opposition is currently not part of the democratic parliamentary system and, perhaps, not willing to participate in it till such time as its demands have been substantially met.
Assuming that negotiations do take place with these extra-parliamentary forces the further question arises as to how such agreements will be honoured and implemented given that they are arrived at with parties who presently do not have an electoral mandate. It should perhaps be written into these agreements that the non-elected parties must participate in the democratic electoral process.
Assuming that these difficulties can be overcome the federal and provincial governments should be generous and forthcoming not only in matters relating to the release of political prisoners and payment of compensation to affected civilians but also in matters pertaining to increase of provincial autonomy, higher prices for gas and minerals produced in Balochistan, larger share of revenue and greater provincial control with respect to Gwadar Port, enhanced quota for Balochi residents in federal jobs and, above all, the creation of a climate of trust and understanding in which the citizens of Balochistan take pride in being Pakistanis first, second and third and think of themselves as Balochis only as part of being Pakistanis. At the same time, the federal and provincial governments should make it equally clear that there is no place, on the negotiating table or otherwise or elsewhere, for people who advocate Baloch independence or who indulge or support acts of sabotage and subversion.
Even when resort to force is necessary, the armed forces should act in aid of civil power in accordance with the provisions of Article 245 of the Constitution and not otherwise except as required to deal with cross-border insurgents and enemy and alien agents. It would be pertinent to recall that the present is not the first time that military power has been deployed against Baloch tribals. Military force was used in the 1970s also but peace came only when the Government ceased the use of force.
Balochistan has porous borders with both Afghanistan (1268 km) and Iran (948 km). There are two border control posts at Chaman and Taftan but over two hundred unofficial routes into and from these countries including 35 which are jeepable. There is reliable evidence with our Intelligence Agencies of cross-border supplies of arms to militant elements in Balochistan. The funding and other logistic support is almost certainly from India though there are others also on the suspect list. This is a problem that can only be handled/controlled/countered by the Armed Forces.
The writer is a senior Advocate of the Supreme Court and former Governor Punjab
http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-newspaper-daily-english-online/Opinions/Columns/23-Jun-2008/Balochistan-conflict/1 |
