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By Nadeem Malik
ISLAMABAD: Presidentâ?Ts close aide, Tariq Aziz, may broker a deal between the government and the Sardars of the poverty-stricken Balochistan.
According to reliable official sources, Aziz held two meetings with Akbar Bugti in the recent past. More such behind the scene efforts are said to be in the works, in addition to the meetings by PML President Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed, who is also heading a special parliamentary committee meeting to resolve the provincial issues.
The situation in Balochistan is worrisome. The frequent rocket attacks at Sui to blow up the gas installations by local tribesmen have created a major headache for Islamabad. Sui fields are the mainstay for a large number of domestic, commercial and industrial consumers of the country. The recent spate of attacks in the impoverished southern province left much of the country without natural gas for days.
However, the situation is not a new phenomenon. There were 239 rocket attacks in 2003, 626 in 2004 and 663 in 2005 (during first four weeks only) in Balochistan. Similarly, there were 37 bomb blasts in 2003, 122 in 2004 and three in 2005 so far. The main concentration of these attacks was generally gas infrastructure.
When Islamabad struck a deal with China to develop Gwadar deep seaport, the situation got worse. The federal government has announced development schemes worth Rs 130 billion in the shape of port, coastal highway, Merani dam and other mega projects, but Sardars of Balochistan have reacted more violently.
There were reports that remnants of al-Qaeda and Taliban use some of the provincial sites to take refuge in the remote border areas, and use some rugged hilly terrains to escape, particularly in areas leading to/from the Arabian Sea. This phenomenon emerged when Army intensified its activities in the South Waziristan Agency after the 9/11 events. President Pervez Musharraf announced the establishment of three military cantonments at Kohlu, Dera Bugti and Gwadar to secure the area, but there was more reaction from the nationalist groups. Now a cantonment is being set up at Sui.
Balochistan â?" bordering Iran and Afghanistan â?" is Pakistanâ?Ts largest province, covering 44 per cent of the countryâ?Ts total area but comprising only 5 per cent of the population. The province has a wealth of natural resources, such as minerals and hydrocarbons, which remain largely unexplored. Despite efforts to develop Balochistanâ?Ts economic and social sectors, there is little industrial activity, and job opportunities outside agriculture and mining are limited. Data on the incidence of poverty is sketchy, but there are indications that it may be as high as 47 percent, while social indicators are poor and gender disparities are significant, a report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) noted.
The report maintained that the Balochistan provincial government has limited fiscal scope, and expenditures allocated do not adequately reflect medium-term policy priorities. Allocations are not enough to cover the growing needs for the operation and maintenance of public services. Water resources are also severely degraded, further limiting growth.
"A lack of good governance has been identified as a central element responsible for continuing low growth and increasing poverty within Balochistan." The bank is assisting to improve the provinceâ?Ts finances so that it can fund sustainable and pro-poor development programmes.
The Sardars of Balochistan, which remained in the power in the past, have raised several issues, like poverty, jobs, unemployment and provincial autonomy, in additional to the other thorny issues, like troubles with the FC and cantonments.
President Pervez Musharraf himself compared the situation of Balochistan with the 1973-77 crisis, when Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto ordered military operation, and Akbar Bugti was the provincial Governor. As a result of the use of force Marri left for neighbouring Afghanistan. Attaullah Mengal left for London.
A little known entity of the past, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has reportedly surfaced again, which is armed with heavy weapons to challenge the writ of the state.
The reports suggest that the BLA, including young men of Marri and Bugti tribes, have possession of Kalashnikovs, heavy machine and anti-aircraft guns, RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades) and multi-barrel rocket launchers.
Who is providing money, arms and logistics to the BLA is not sure. Some media reports point fingers towards Iran, India and the United States. The existing tensions between the Pakhtuns and Balochis are another issue. Media reports also mention two other militant groups, namely Baloch Liberation Front (BLF) and the Baloch Peopleâ?Ts Liberation Army (BPLA).
Failure of the state institutions to deliver social services in the least developed areas of the country, low levels of literacy and rising poverty provides breeding grounds for such organisations. About half the rural villages in Balochistan have poor roads or no road at all and poverty levels in some areas approach 70 percent.
Gravel roads or earthen tracks represent 90 per cent of the provincial road network. Most are in poor condition and have been deteriorating owing to increased traffic, under investment, and lack of maintenance.
The issue of gas royalty is another sore point. Balochistan raised the issue of Gas Development Surcharge (GDS) in the National Finance Commission (MFC) meetings. Balochistan gets Rs 4.1 billion per annum GDS out of the actual collection of about Rs 15 billion per annum, the rest goes to Sindh.
The provincial government demands 68 per cent share in the GDS, while Sindh refused to accept this demand. Under the existing NFC award, the provinces are entitled to get only 37.5 per cent revenues out of the divisible pool in accordance with their respective shares, which gives 5.11 per cent to Balochistan. There is some provision in the award to give special funds (subventions) to Balochistan and NWFP (about Rs 8 billion per annum).
The efforts to reach consensus on the 6th award, with the proposed Population-Plus formula, failed last year, when Sindhâ?Ts demand of considering revenue collection, as one of the factors was rejected by other three provinces. The Population-Plus formula proposed 94 per cent resources on the population basis, and 6 percent on the basis of other factors, like backwardness/poverty and area, which addressed the demands of both Balochistan and NWFP.
Now the situation is more tense and difficult. There are violent attacks at key installations and institutions. The issue of lack of resources and unemployment is common in all provinces. The provincial unemployment rate is not even, with lowest in Sindh at 5.97 per cent, Punjab 7.36 percent, Balochistan 8.19 percent, and NWFP at 12.85 per cent.
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