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Breaking up larger Muslim states, redrawing borders between some of them, creating new political entities are all part of the new strategic game plan
By: Shireen M Mazari
As the scale of terrorist attacks in Balochistan becomes more extensive, a pattern can be discerned which points to a deliberate targeting of communication systems and national assets, impacting the country across provincial boundaries. With more sophisticated explosives, which demonstrate a greater access to external sources of weapons and money, the so-called Baloch Liberation Army has moved away from targeting soft civil society targets to installations, military set-ups and communication links. The acts of sabotage are clearly not random but have careful planning behind them -- as well as a certain level of technical sophistication. And of course there is the very important financial aspect. All these indicators prove the strong external linkages to what is happening in Balochistan.
This is not to deny the prevalence of local discontent that is primarily linked to a sense of economic deprivation. This is why the broad contours of the recommendations of the parliamentary committee on Balochistan that have appeared in some sections of the press, are a big step in the right direction -- if they are implemented speedily. The main thrust of these recommendations seems to be to not only give the Baloch a greater economic stake in the development of their province but also to preserve the locals’ political balance despite the intrusion of settlers from outside the province. A suggestion to increase gas royalty for the province and ensure that 15 per cent of this royalty is spent on developing the relevant local areas is also a much-needed move. Will these policies along with engagement of the Baloch leaders politically ensure a return to stability and normalcy in the province? Not in the immediate future, because of the external factors. But they will help to isolate these external factors while rectifying the locals’ sense of deprivation. Most important, implementing these recommendations will help in denying space to external players in terms of recruiting locals for acts of terrorism.
Because much of the external interest in Balochistan is linked to Gwadar, the parliamentary committee’s reported recommendations also focus on Gwadar with some very relevant proposals which would allow the Balochs to oversee the development of the port and related projects rather than finding themselves sidelined and left out of the loop by settlers. The development of the Gwadar port, of course, allows Pakistan and China very concrete economic opportunities including the opening up of a trade corridor with a reach to Central Asia. If Gwadar and its surrounding areas develop, business can be attracted here away from some of the prevailing Gulf financial centres -- where India has very heavy financial stakes. Here the economic interests of India become enmeshed with the interests of the Gulf States.
Nor is the relevance of Gwadar merely economic, although presently for Pakistan and China, that is the prime objective. In the long run Gwadar’s strategic importance has multiplied post-9/11 because of the US presence in the region -- both in the Gulf and in Central Asia. To suddenly have a strategic port at Gwadar, uncomfortably close to the main US overseas base in the Gulf, to which China would have access, becomes an unacceptable notion for the US, which sees the containment and probable encirclement of China as a long-term strategic objective.
Then there is the issue of energy security and US efforts to keep control of energy resources in Muslim states and societies, from the Middle East to Central Asia. India is also investing heavily in Central Asia’s energy resources and there was news in early January 2005 that the Saudi oil giant Aramco was thinking of going into a strategic alliance with Indian Oil Company. For both the US and India, the pipelines projects through Pakistan allow Chinese energy needs to be met more efficiently.
As long as Balochistan remains unstable and the law and order situation remains uncertain, Gwadar’s true potential cannot be realised. And the Chinese will certainly be compelled to take a second look at their growing economic commitment in Pakistan. They were moving in a big way into the Pakistani market, especially in terms of investment in the industrial sector. By creating a law and order situation, the Pakistani market can be denied to the Chinese even as the Indians come in to make bids for sick industrial units in Sindh and Punjab -- under various fronts, including holding companies based in England in the case of the rice mills purchase on the Narowal Road near Kala Shah Kaku.
Within all these "great power games", one should recall the Balochistan Chief Minister’s statement of August 13, 2004 that RAW was running at least 40 camps in his province. After all, with an Indian presence on the Pakistan-Afghan border as well as in Zahidan, the opportunities for low intensity conflict become multiplied for India. For the US, also, Baloch instability is far more preferable to a stable and economically booming Balochistan with its strategic location -- especially since the latter will have a positive economic fallout for neighbouring Iran.
However, more important for the US, it would like to isolate Iran within the region even as it increases its rhetoric against Iran on the nuclear issue. We have seen US Vice President Cheney declaring, on January 20, 2005, that Israel might "act first" against Iran and Condoleezza Rice declare that Iran must be made to understand that it cannot pursue its nuclear ambitions. At the same time Israeli Defence Minister Mofaz told French law makers that Iran had reached "a point of no return" on building nuclear weapons -- an ironic statement given Israel’s own clandestine nuclear weapons programme. Is it merely a coincidence that as the US rhetoric against Iraq has increased in belligerency, the acts of sabotage in Balochistan have increased in frequency and intensity?
Here, nothing would suit the US better than to aggravate Pakistan-Iran relations -- by planting rumours that somehow Iran was involved in the Balochistan violence, thereby compelling Pakistan to seal the Pakistan-Iran border in a fashion similar to the Pakistan-Afghan border situation. Also, given that the US continues to toy with the idea of a military strike against Iran, the US thinking, based on an amazing sense of naivete, seems to be that somehow if suspicion and animosity is created between Pakistan and Iran, its actions against Iran will have no fallout in Pakistan. It should realise that no matter what the state of the Pakistan-Iran relationship, any military attack against Iran will be seen as a precursor to an attack against Pakistan’s strategic assets. Any such US military action will also make it even more difficult for Pakistan to cooperate with the US on strategic issues. Interestingly enough, at present it is certainly not in Iran’s interests to have a destabilised Balochistan, given its growing problems with the US and instability on its other borders, especially in the Iraqi context.
For the US there is a much wider context to what is happening in Balochistan. This is linked to its efforts to redraw the map of the Muslim World in the Middle East and West Asia -- what is now being referred to as the "Broader Middle East". Breaking up larger Muslim states, redrawing borders between some of them, creating new political entities -- all these are part of the new strategic game plan. In our own context it is important to remember that the Afghan elections revealed a clear ethnic split, and that targeting Iran also includes seeking opportunities to encourage old notions of "Greater Balochistan". Pakistan must recognise the strong external factors interested in keeping Balochistan destabilised. That is why isolating and removing the local disaffection and re-establishing law and order should be the most critical national priority.
The writer is Director General of the
Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad. Email: smnews80@hotmail.com
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