By: A.H Amin Nimrozi
History does not move in straight lines. It is manipulated by the privileged Classes and by personalities in key positions of political or institutional strength. Movements and policies are justified in the name of race or ideology while ulterior motives are at work. Countries are created not because of solid ideological or national reasons but because of clash of egos!
Some states are created or owe their existence to clash of two great powers like Afghanistan and Nepal or Luxemburg or Finland. Some were created because of inadvertent affects of policies of Imperialist powers like «Divide and Rule".
India and the regions that include Pakistan and Bangladesh was never a country but it was united several times by invaders. Similarly Afghanistan was the highway of conquest and the modern state of Afghanistan was created only in 1747.
It is time now to revise the concept of the strong federal state led by an Iron man and to recognize the nationality principle. Pakistan was created not because the Muslim elite loved Islam but because they feared Hindu and Sikh Economic, political and institutional domination. Initially Muslim separatism as Francis Robinsons classical research proves originated from the British Indian province of UP (United Province).The key issue was not ideological but social i.e. inability to compete with the more educated and financially stronger Hindus. This separatism later spread to Muslim majority provinces where the Muslim landlords and Pirs under heavy debt to Hindu money lenders joined the Muslim League in order to drive out their Hindu debtors.
Pakistan was created in 1947 and soon the Pakistani generals in league with British trained civil servants and feudalist started a joint Jihad to destroy Pakistan’s democracy which finally succeeded in 1958.Since 1958 Pakistani military junta has ruled the country and used the Kashmir Dispute as a reason for gobbling up Pakistan’s 70 % budget. In the process Pakistani military miserably failed in 1965 War despite significant superiority over Indians in
Number and quality of equipment. The matter is discussed in great detail in my book The Pakistan Army till 1965 held at US Army Staff College and War College Libraries and also at Air War College Karachi Library. The Staff College Quetta had refused to accept it in their library.
All along Pakistani military junta used various pretexts to solicit Western military and financial aid, the ulterior motive being to consolidate its own position in the Pakistani power politics. First it used the Soviet threat to get US aid. Later it used Afghan war as an excuse for getting aid and now it is using the Islamist Threat as an excuse for getting aid. Even this earthquake is a golden opportunity for this avaricious and corrupt military junta.
Recently General Musharraf has started another jugglery show claiming that he is the man of peace. A good move since Kashmir and USSR are no longer in vogue. Musharraf states that he wants friendship with India and Israel. We do not question his good intentions but taken in depth this signals Musharraf’s acceptance that 1947 partition of India was a faux pas. If so many Muslims were killed in 1947 , 1965 and 1971 then what was the use of the whole exercise in futility. If Israel is now being engaged by Pakistan’s military junta now why was it not done earlier? Why this whole game?
Seen in depth Pakistan’s military junta has an institutional interest in peace now. It wanted war when it suited its institutional interests and it wants peace when it suits Musharraf! Seen in this context Pakistani military junta may be initiating a process similar to the one initiated by Gorbachev that led to disintegration of USSR.
Surely if India is not a threat, why have such a large army? Why not undo the Federal structure and let Balochistan and Sindh and NWFP are states as initially hinted in the Pakistan Resolution of 1940.Why should Pakistan Army be building cantonments in Balochistan?
What Musharraf is indirectly signaling is that partition was a blunder. That war is good when it is good for Pakistani military junta and bad when it does not suit the Pakistani military junta.
Three wars fought for no reason. Afghanistan destroyed by pursuing an adventurism and a genocidal foreign policy by all starting from Ayub, Zia down to Naseerullah Babar and even Musharraf as he stood before 9/11.
The West must not forget that Musharraf may prove to be a liability rather than an asset for the world in the long run. What must be understood is the fact that Musharraf’s appeasement of the West will lead to a massive Islamist backlash. Musharraf is far more fragile now than anyone can imagine. Cheap adventurisms as well as cheap appeasement are equally dangerous. The Pakistan Army was a laughing stock when they bogged down at Khem Karan .Now Musharraf has proved that all was a grand strategic fraud.
If peace with India was good why did not the Pakistani generals did it earlier. Why, so that they could gobble 70 to 80 % of Pakistan’s budget every year since 1958! This is a serious question which no Pakistani politician is asking. Why one million Bengalis butchered by the army in 1971 and at least 50,000 Baloch killed since 1947? Why this aimless genocide. Why were 1 million Afghans killed from 1978 till to date just because the military usurper Zia wanted US money and Stingers to sell in the black market! Why is everyone silent!
Musharraf’s short term theatrics need to be reviewed seriously. If all that he states is right then Pakistan will have to re-think its ideology .If Pakistan leaves its ideology then it is a state comprising nationality, a multi ethnic state. The Pakistani military junta must not forget that since 1958 Pakistan was an army with a state rather than a state with an army. If now Pakistani military junta makes grand claims of peace in order to please USA, Pakistani is on the road to Balkanisation.
What Musharraf has initiated is a dangerous game. Paying in the short run but self destructive for the Pakistani military junta in the long run. Possibly good for the region if a self serving military machine is reduced to size. Possibly dangerous for the region if a backlash starts and Islamic extremism is the main beneficiary. Musharraf’s policies need to be questioned not only by the Pakistani people but by the whole world.
In the Pakistani context following may be the implications:--
Pakistan’s smaller provinces may question the rationale for Pakistan .If India is not a threat and Afghanistan is a friend why not have an independent Baloch, Pushtun or Sindhi state .Why have a large army which has been involved in a dangerous foreign policy and in aggression against Pakistan’s neighbours. The Durand Line may have significance for the Pakistani junta but for the Baloch and Pushtun it is a Berlin Wall which will become meaningless one day.
Why should Pakistan have a nuclear programmes and a large standing army .Why should not the US insist that Pakistan reduce its army and dismantle its nuclear warheads.
Conversely if the Pakistan Army is reduced why should the smaller provinces stay with the Pakistani Federal state? It is only the coercive force of the army that has kept the Pakistani confederation together.
Why should not Pakistan’s neighbours demand a redrawing of boundaries?
Musharraf’s policies and his petty opportunism is a grave danger for the region. It is possible that in the end his policies may prove to be seriously counter productive for world peace. The Pakistani military junta needs to stop playing games which it has been playing since 1954 when it entered Pakistani politics as a subversive force and since 192 when it entered regional politics as a subversive adventurist force. The USA must understand that they are not dealing with rational good natured men but with crafty opportunists who may prove to be a serious strategic liability.
Who has given the Pakistani military junta to decide what is good and what is bad for Pakistan. If their claims are to be believed as now Musharraf states Pakistan was a faux pas!
Or is it possible that Musharraf is USA’s Trojan horse to deal with the «Final Solution" of the Pakistani WMDs. The Pakistan Army wanted to have nothing to do with me since 1993 and they found my book "Pakistan Army Since 1965" blasphemous. My assessment is that Pakistan will be divided by stupidities and personal agendas of Pakistani generals and politicians. The Balochistan Liberation Army will have little effort to make!
A.H Amin Nimrozi
Ex Editor Globe, Ex Assistant Editor Defence Journal, PUBLICATIONS: -- Pakistan Army till 1965,Sepoy Rebellion of 1857-59 Reinterpreted, Indo Pak Wars from 1947-71-A Strategic and Operational Analysis, The Essential Clausewitz, held at Library of Congress,Combined Arms Research Library US Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth,US Army War College Library Carlisle,US Army Armor School Fort Knox Library,Columbia University LibraryUS Military Academy West Point ,columnist PRAVDA,NATION,DAWN,FRIDAY TIMES,SOUTH ASIA TRIBUNE,STATESMAN PESHAWAR,CITADEL MAGAZINE OF COMMAND AND STAFF COLLEGE QUETTA,PAKISTAN ARMY JOURNAL,INDIAN STRATEGIC REVIEW, WWW.ORBAT.COM,FRONTIER POST,THE NEWS,BALOCH OSTOMAN, BALOCH.COM ,MILITARY AND SECURITY REVIEW.
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