By Syed Fazl-e-Haider
BRITAIN’S prestigious weekly, The Economist, recently accused Washington and New Delhi of "unwittingly" fuelling unrest in Balochistan in their quest for oil and gas. "The neighbouring field of Marri tribe contains oil and coal, but the government has not dared to exploit it", it said.
India has surprised Pakistan by resorting to what may be described interference in its internal matters at a juncture when the two countries are moving fast through a peace process to normalize their relations. It has shown its ’concern’ over recent incidents of violent clashes in Balochistan and asked Pakistan government to "exercise restraint." In reply to a question, India’s foreign office spokesman Navtej Sharma said that his country had been watching the situation with concern. "We hope that the Government of Pakistan will exercise restraint and take recourse to peaceful discussions to address the grievances of the people of Balochistan."
Meanwhile, B. Raman, a retired Indian bureaucrat who represents the views of hardline anti-Pakistan lobby in South Block and runs a website on behalf of so-called ’South Asia Analysis Group’, recently said in an article: "The struggle for an independent Balochistan is part of the unfinished agenda of the Partition. Due to reasons of realpolitik, we let them down during their first war of independence. The same realpolitik would dictate painful inaction by us now too. But that does not mean we should hesitate to draw the attention of the international community to the ruthless massacre of Baloch nationalists by the Pakistan army. We owe our moral support to them".
What makes India feel disturbed over the present Balochistan situation can be seen from a geopolitical perspective. How does a troubled and volatile Balochistan serve India’s strategic interests? Is the politics of discouraging mega projects (particularly Gwadar deep-water port project) part of India’s strategy to depreciate Pakistan’s strategic value in the region?
Balochistan is located in a region of immense geo-political importance. The mega projects, already launched or about to be launched, will open up the province to other provinces and also to Central Asia in particular, turning it into a land of opportunities for foreign investors. Hence, the attempts by certain elements to create a sense of insecurity in the province by committing acts of violence only amounts to subverting the ongoing development process and vitiating the atmosphere for foreign investment. Although the first phase of Gwadar port was completed by Chinese engineers in November 2004 ahead of schedule, its ground-breaking ceremony could not be held in January 2005, probably owing to the deteriorating law and order situation. Later, the situation got worse.
India seems to be in a state of cold war with Pakistan ever since the latter launched the Gwadar port project. India’s recent efforts for developing the North-South Transportation Corridor (NSTC), the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Iran highway, a strategic road project linking Tajikistan with Chahbahar via Afghanistan and its growing defence cooperation with the Central Asian republics (CARs) are some of its projects to counter Pakistan’s strategic interests. These projects are likely to suffer a setback as soon as Gwadar port becomes operational and emerges as a key port in an area that marks the confluence of South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia.
Central Asia is of great geo-economic importance to Pakistan. Gwadar port is being developed with a huge investment of China. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has announced a $300 million loan to finance road projects, which will connect the entire region with this port. The goods produced in Pakistan can be exported to CARs through these roads at much cheaper rates. India intends to deny Pakistan an easy access to Central Asia. It is looking for alternative routes bypassing Pakistan to reach Afghanistan and Central Asia.
In a bid to boost economic and trade ties with energy rich Central Asia, India plans to actively participate in building trans-Afghanistan road and rail links between Uzbekistan’s Termez to Iran’s Chahbahar port in the Gulf. It actually wants to overshadow Pakistan’s transit route to the land-locked Afghanistan by constructing a strategic road linking Kabul to Chahbahar.
Geographically, India faces a challenge in establishing an access to Central Asia. That is why, India has been working with Iran to develop a north-south trade corridor, from Central Asia to Afghanistan through Iran to Chahbahar port, from where goods could be shipped by sea to these countries.
India has always been ambitious to dominate the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. It sees such dominance imperative to pursue its hegemonistic designs in the region. It has been involved in building up a navy, which exceeds its requirements. There is no denying the fact that India’s expansionisms have serious political, economic and military implications for Pakistan. It is obvious that the construction of Gwadar port poses a threat to India’s designs in the region.
As part of its policy of Islamabad’s containment, New Delhi is reluctant to go ahead with the building of a gas pipeline either from Turkmenistan or from Iran through Pakistani territory. India’s "concern" on the current situation (violent incidents between the tribesmen and the security personnel) in Balochistan may be aimed at creating doubts about the proposed trans-national gas pipeline projects. One may recall that soon after an attack on gas facilities in Sui by tribesmen some months ago, the then Indian foreign minister Natwar Singh had asked in a statement how Pakistan would ensure safety of the proposed trilateral gas pipeline coming from Iran to his country when it was unable to protect its own gas installations.
In Balochistan, there is apparently little opposition to the ongoing process of economic development among common people for it is they who will benefit from it. The opposition comes from a particular group of the Sardars whose areas are the most under-developed but contain large untapped oil and gas reserves. They resist development for that can weaken the age-old tribal system and their social clout. But what helps them gain legitimacy of their campaign for greater autonomy is the long history of neglect, discrimination and injustice by Islamabad towards the legitimate interests of the province. Hence, they are joined by the liberal and nationalist elements in opposing what is called the centre’s "colonial approach." That tends to create doubts in the population about the intentions behind the development schemes launched by the regime. Even constructions of roads in remote tribal areas are seen as a conspiracy.
Military operations carried out in 1948, 1958, 1965 and 1973 have turned Balochistan into an ’over-sensitive’ province. But these operations were undertaken mostly for political reasons, not for pursuing and protecting development projects which at present amount to Rs 130 billion. Nor was the province’s enormous development potential and geo-strategic location so discernible in the past to the outside world to lure foreign investment as it is today.
There is a need to address genuine grievances, if any, of the stakeholders - private sector, technical personnel, labourers, etc., - with regard to various projects. If local elite of the areas, where some development activity is taking place, have certain objections then these should be addressed and removed rather than be ignored or suppressed by force. The government must take measures to remove the sense of alienation, if any, of Baloch nationalists to bring them into mainstream politics, and create local stakes in the province’s development.
Reports from Dera Bugti and Kohlu districts suggest a continued exchange of fire between paramilitary forces and tribesmen resulting in increased casualties. This can help external forces exploit the situation in their favour and carry on their propaganda. But this can also slow down the pace of development or even lead to abandonment of some projects in Balochistan. It is, therefore, in the interest of all stakeholders that recurring incidents of violence be brought to an end and the disputes resolved through a dialogue.
http://www.dawn.com/weekly/encounter/encounter1.htm |
