By Syed Shahid Husain
The situation in Balochistan appears to be much more ballistic than what our establishment thinks it to be
More than 90 minutes’ address of General Pervez Musharraf has calmed the fears of three smaller provinces regarding the Kalabagh dam, at least, for the time being. The Bajour attack by American forces that has gripped the minds of the people was not even mentioned in the address. But underneath all that, Balochistan is simmering. The troops that may not have been averse to arresting the Nawab dead or alive have occupied Akbar Bugti’s house in Dera Bugti. The ultimate insult has been inflicted on the Nawab and his tribe.
The operation started with a rocket attack on the aircraft of the Chief of Army Staff who was visiting remote areas of the province to give some largesse to the people. It fell within 60ft of his stationary aircraft. This was the result of a horrendous intelligence failure. Firstly, it had been estimated that the tribals had rockets that could not go beyond 10kms. And this one travelled 14kms. Secondly, the visit was a surprise and the programme had been changed several times and yet the militants seemed to know. Obviously such audacity cannot go unpunished. The IGFC and the DIG were ordered to go and punish the miscreants. Their aircraft also came under attack. Both of them were injured, how seriously one does not know. Then came the military operation, which created headlines both here and abroad. India being the first, as well as our neighbour, jumped into the fray advising the government to resolve the issue not with guns but with dialogue. The government of Pakistan gave a "befitting" reply advising India to mind her own business.
Newspapers are full of dismal news that escapes the ill-fated province. A number of casualties are being suffered by the local population not necessarily by those involved in "militancy" and horrors of horror, 12 locals are alleged to have been executed in cold blood. Some casualties on the government’s side are also inevitable, considering the nature of weaponization of the country in general, and the province in particular.
But, was the operation the best thing to do in response to the attack on the general’s aircraft? No such military operation was launched in Punjab or Rawalpindi/Islamabad when the general narrowly escaped at least two attempts on his life, Baloch leaders say. It would have made far more sense to engage good police officers from anywhere in the country to nab the culprits and bring them to book. A large-scale operation of this size only creates a sense of uncertainty, destabilizes the federation and reminds people of the fate of East Pakistan. Bitterness from previous operations still persists. Fortunately, there are many more people this time around prepared to speak on behalf of the province unlike in the case of East Pakistan. The proximity of the province cuts both ways.
The people of this unfortunate country have no control over their destinies and can only suffer in silence from pain at the loss of East Pakistan. They see in the present situation parallells with that trauma. That the situation is vastly different escapes emotional analysis of the people. The first big difference is the contiguity of the province to the source of supplies and troops with India not separating the two. Another is the lack of borders of India with the province. Third is the weaponry, which has improved, and the armies can wage war from the safe distance of the skies.
Unfortunately for the regime, it is no more 1958 or 1973. Media focus and concern for human rights have only increased, making it difficult to get away without making electronic waves. The latest demonstration of raw power of the US killing 18 innocent civilians in the tribal areas of the NWFP attests to the fact.
Balochistan bears close parallells with Iraq too, where US troops control, from the safety of the skies and the green area where they are bivouacked. They have got used to two to three casualties a day but once the figure gets higher they avenge themselves by wrecking destruction from the skies upon the Iraqis who they suspect of being involved. Their precision bombing is not that precise and marriage parties, Al Jazeera TV correspondents or any number of less well known victims get hit. While they were busy with Yugoslavia they by "mistake" bombed the Chinese embassy. Former President Clinton in his book insists it was a mistake. Our aerial actions would be less precise and could cause substantial unintended damage. Reports are trickling in that women, children and men having nothing to do with "insurgency" have been the victims.
On the other hand, there are also reports of our troops being reluctant to engage the "militants" for reasons of their own safety and comfort. One should not forget that our military is hardly professional any more having been engaged for a long time in everything except their own calling. Our military is obviously less professional because it has to perform political functions besides running a large number of businesses, real estates and a host of government departments. The terrain of the province does not permit establishment of the writ of the government, the avowed purpose of the operation. It is now more than certain that the exploitation of mineral resources, mainly gas and oil in Marri and Bugti areas, may be beyond the reach of our troops.
There is so much confusion all over the country that the people feel despondent. Bajour, Kalabagh, Balochistan, North and South Waziristan and abject poverty are some of the problems. The people of Balochistan are the poorest in the country and Baloch the poorest in their own province. There are 10 cities in Pakistan which are least poor. Of them Balochistan has only one, that is Quetta. One can imagine the stark poverty in the province that is the lot, particularly of the Baloch people. Pounding them from the air simply because some miscreants fired rocket in the wrong direction isn’t fair. The people of that province have been treated more shabbily than others. Their provincial government is not worth the name. An incompetent chief minister heads the government and follows the safe policy of doing what he is told by his handlers. He appears to have less than average intelligence and his being there amounts not to have any government at all.
What has the government given them? Nothing. We found their terrain suitable only for bombing our way into the nuclear club. They have been denied their due share for the wellhead price of gas. They never knew what gas was like when the rest of the country enjoyed the gas in their homes. Sui is still used by a large number of people as a synonym for gas. Blaming their problems on the Sardars is neither here nor there. Many more Sardars are with the government than against it. Who is responsible for giving them corrupt and incompetent provincial governments? The federal government. Who has allowed the Sardars to wield power? The federal government. Who has allowed illiteracy to be the lot of the people? It is the federal government obsessed with the security of realm.
Then there is the American factor. Does it suit the Americans to have a turbulent province while they are busy "pacifying" Afghanistan? Apparently not. And what about Iran-Pak-India pipeline? Americans are absolutely opposed to the idea. India, keen to acquire global respectability of nuclear club membership, is likely to scuttle the idea. After all, it voted against Iran giving up its long-standing policy. Pakistan would then be left high and dry. Would the US be counselling the government to go slow and wind down the operation? Perhaps. Or they would be exploring other options not quite palatable to Pakistan.
http://www.dawn.com/weekly/dmag/dmag18.htm |
