By Syed Fazl-e-Haider
A military operation is not without its human, social, political and economic costs. The duration of the military action also matters. The longer it continues, and the more bloody the confrontation gets, the more likely it is to lead to graver consequences. In the past, Balochistan has witnessed insurgencies- in 1948,1958, 1962 and 1973. Military operations were undertaken to quell them. The military operation of 1973 is termed as the ’longest’ and the ’costliest’ in terms of so-called collateral damage and human casualties on both sides. It lasted for full four years 1973 -1977.
The ongoing fifth operation, officials claim, is to subdue the saboteurs and anti-development elements and establish the writ of the government. Such actions in the past created political instability, centre-province disharmony, social chaos and intensified feelings of frustration and alienation and subsequently retarded the process of economic development in the province.
As the current reports go, thousands of people from Dera Bugti have migrated along with their families to Naseerabad, Jafarabad and Dera Murad Jamali districts. These people are poor, weak, vulnerable, downtrodden, unemployed, under-employed and exploited. Most of them were travelling bare-footed.
This large influx and displacement of such poor people would exert pressure on the meagre resources of the host districts. The migrated or displaced would roam in search of job to earn livelihood. Those who have no relative live in camps-like nomads’ huts. Only return of peace and stability in Bugti tribal area would restore their means of livelihood.
The present military action has adversely affected the mining activities. Many areas of Bolan and Kalat districts such as Mach, Marwar, Sinjidi, Suranj etc where the coal fields are located, have been cordoned off, security check-posts have been established and troops deployed. The prevailing security environment and social chaos has hampered mining operations. The daily-wagers associated with coal-mining have been rendered jobless.
Balochistan has not benefited much from the buoyant economic growth and a substantial increase in poverty-related public expenditure witnessed in the past few years. Ironically, unemployment in the province increased at a time when Pakistan’s economy and employment, as per official claim, were improving.
According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS) 2003-2004, urban unemployment is 9.7 per cent in Pakistan, and 12.5 per cent in Balochistan. Between 2001 and 2003, unemployment decreased from 8.3 to 7.7 per cent in Pakistan but went up from 7.8 to 8.2 per cent in the province. Though Balochistan has been untouched by strong economic growth, its weak economy is likely to be affected by the military action and the rising unrest. The province is predominantly an agro-pastoral economy. The severe droughts in recent years have also led to internal migration and increased the vulnerability of the poor. The province has the highest percentage of the highly deprived, both in terms of income and poverty.
According to an estimate, 89 per cent of its people live in highly deprived districts. Over 50 per cent population is living below poverty line, on less than a dollar a day. The people lack employment opportunities. Only 50 per cent population has an access to clean drinking water, half of school age children attend elementary school, and one third of children (12-23 months) are immunized.
Similarly, those who are firing rockets at public properties and targeting railway tracks, gas and water pipelines are not only inflicting heavy losses to the national and provincial economy but also creating more difficulties for common man.
The Uch power plant has been closed after the miscreants targeted it. If the same amount being spent on purchasing of arms and ammunition would have been used on welfare works by tribal chiefs, the people would not be as deprived as they are today.
It is the people not rulers who suffered from the Islamabad’s decades-old policy of discrimination. It is the people, not sardars, who bear the brunt of primitive tribal feuds and vendetta, which have claimed hundreds of precious lives for the past two or three decades. And again these are poor, deprived, exploited and discriminated masses who are the real victims of the ongoing clashes between tribesmen and paramilitary forces and its subsequent retaliation- bomb blasts, acts of sabotage and terrorism.
The military operation may also lead to abandonment of many projects and may slow down the pace of ongoing development process in the province. No mega-project will bear fruit for the national economy in the given state of security affairs, and law and order situation.
The mega projects are yet to bear fruits for the nation and make dent on the prevailing poverty and backwardness in the province. The second phase of Gwadar port project has been started and it will be developed by the private sector. It is expected that economic activity will get boost in the second phase. The government has decided to establish export processing zones (EPZ) in Chaghi and Lasbella to attract foreign investment. The given state of security is not conducive to lure foreign investment.
Military operation will also mar the ’image’ of the country. It may even discourage foreign investment, as Balochistan imbroglio is getting coverage on a global scale. Some states are busy exploiting the prevailing unrest in order to carry forward their geopolitical agenda. Geographically, Balochistan is the province from where the multi-billion dollar gas pipelines would have to traverse-either from Iran, Qatar or Turkmenistan.
The Kohlu and Dera Bugti are rich in oil and gas resources. Pakistan Petroleum Exploration and Production Companies Association (PPEPCA) recently asked the federal government to open Balochistan for exploration to overcome the potential energy shortage in the next 2-3 years. The prevailing security environment cannot attract foreign investment in the oil and gas exploration sector. It also calls into question the guarantees of security for a proposed gas pipeline from Iran to India that would have to run through the province. India has repeatedly voiced its concern about the security of the pipeline traversing the province.
Today, security is number-one issue related to the economic development in the province. The military action, deployment of forces and establishment of check-posts at different places are the short-term and temporary measures, which are normally taken to bring calm to an area under trouble.
Such measures have been ineffective, even counter productive to solve political problems.
Balochistan’s political scene is marked by agitation and resentment over the military action. If the centuries-old sardari system has exploited the people, what have the successive governments been doing for the last 55 years.
The growth of nationalist sentiments finds its roots from the long history of injustice and discrimination against the province. The Baloch nationalists contend that the rulers can spend billion of rupees for establishing cantonments but they have nothing to spend for supply of drinking water to the people of the province.
Some people say, ’outlaws firing rockets and blowing up railway tracks must not go unpunished’, but the political issues need to be tackled politically. The political process though started late, could not gain momentum along with the development process.
The strategy of continuing development process at gunpoint may end in smoke.
Balochistan’s main grievances include the denial of provincial autonomy as guaranteed by the Constitution, inadequate royalty on gas and other minerals, economic backwardness and fiscal disbursement on the basis of population. The province has long been demanding for provincial autonomy.
President Musharraf, before the elections 2002, had announced to leave the issue of provincial autonomy to the elected assembly and the government. The President had left the issue unattended as he deemed, it was very complicated.
The parliamentary committee on Balochistan was set up in 2004 for bringing political reconciliation but why were the committee’s recommendations not implemented?
Tribalism cannot be combated under shadows of army garrisons but it is the educational academies, technical institutes and high-profile vocational training centres that initiate the process for transformation of a closed society. Pakistan’s prosperity is linked to a developed Balochistan rather than a garrisoned or tribal province. Only the educated, skilled and healthy local population can make the best use of the enormous natural resources of the province.
Deployment of security forces, establishment of cantonments and military operation are not the suitable strategies to create a stable security environment. A political reconciliation can help sustain the ongoing development process and that would be in our supreme national interest.
http://www.dawn.com/2006/01/30/ebr11.htm |
