A Lahore-bound bus from Quetta has been time-bombed, killing 12. The bomb was placed under a seat near the back of the bus. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombing, although violence between tribal militants and security forces has recently escalated in the remote areas of the province. The provincial police chief therefore quickly linked it to tribal violence even though several local Baloch and Pashtun citizens were on board the bus. Since state officials have been naming India in such incidents in the past, the interior minister, Aftab Sherpao, thought he should wait until investigations were complete. Down south, six people were killed, including two soldiers, in clashes between security forces and Bugti tribesmen, as another gas well of the Loti Gas Plant had to be closed down.
After two quick-fire derailments, Pakistan Railways announced Sunday that both were actually acts of sabotage, mentally linking earlier acts of terrorism in Lahore with trails clearly running to Dera Bugti. The district officer at Dera Bugti, whose house was rocketed, says that unless the paramilitary are ordered to answer fire and are helped with supplementary forces, gas fields other than Loti, too, might simply shut down. He says Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti was up in the mountains directing the attacks in which allegedly hundreds of rockets worth millions of rupees have been lobbed. So as the government observed a well-organised Kashmir Day, telling the people that Pakistan was incomplete without Kashmir, things in Balochistan were coming to a head.
Is a "critical mass" being reached in Balochistan? The government is denying that "military operation" is underway in the province, but are events converging towards a decision to supplement the paramilitary force called the Frontier Corps with "hot troops"? The political consensus so far has been that only negotiations can bring peace to the province. The Baloch themselves seemed to be united behind this option but, as the war waged by the Marri-Mengal-Bugti trio of tribal chiefs escalates, this consensus is undergoing a subtle change. Sub-tribes not in agreement with the chiefs of their overarching tribes are increasingly asking the government to act. The presence of independent TV channels has given fair opportunity to chiefs and the dissenting sub-tribes to express their views and the effect on the opinion in the rest of the country could actually turn against the rebellious chiefs.
The dissenting Bugtis (Kalpar, Masuri) are being allowed by the government to return to their homes after more than a decade of exile in Sindh and Punjab. Their point of view is now being picked up by the TV channels. Many in Pakistan could be hearing about them for the first time. A number of intellectuals have come on talk shows and given a "neutral" point of view, which also doesn’t go in favour of the rebels. The Bijaranis (a Marri sub-tribe) have aggressively put forward their demand for justice between them and the powerful Gazinis led by Sardar Khair Baksh Marri. In an interview on the BBC, the London-based son of Sher Muhammad Marri (a Bijarani), the hero of the 1973 uprising, expressed doubts about the current actions by the tribal chiefs.
The present moment could be the unravelling of the various "incongruous" layers of nationalism in the province. There is the nationalism shared by the rest of the country centred on the grievance of insufficient level of development and representation of Balochistan. Even the much-denigrated Punjab fully supports the Baloch province on this stance. Then there are two strands of separatism - one embraced by the rebel chiefs dating back to 1947 when the Khan of Kalat refused to join Pakistan; and the recent, popular one among the Baloch based on the possession of natural resources - which may actually become redefined through a process of unscrambling. Yet another abiding factor in Balochistan is the Baloch-Pashtun divide with the Pashtuns not completely sharing the separatist nationalism backed by the rebel chiefs.
This is perhaps the time for the rebel Sardars to take a fresh look at the political landscape of the province and see how some of its lineaments are changing. There is still strong political consensus in the parliament (see the Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain parliamentary committee report, 2005) for giving Balochistan unprecedented autonomy short of actual separation. Therefore the representatives of the Baloch in the parliament must win a negotiated victory for the people of Balochistan from Islamabad so that the Baloch nationalism of rebellious Sardars can be steered in productive and not isolated directions. *
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