The recent keenness shown on the part of India to go ahead with the tripartite Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project despite the reservations of Washington is a welcome step not only for Pakistan but also for the region. Ever since the introduction of the idea of this gas pipeline in 1994, the response of the Indian government to the project has fluctuated. Besides the security concerns of India as the pipeline is to cross the politically turbulent Balochistan area, recently India’s backing of a resolution against Iran in the IAEA threw a spoke in the wheel. However, the looming energy shortfall in India due to its expanding economy has helped it warm up to the proposition. Impelled by their growing energy needs, both India and Pakistan agreed on Saturday to take up the construction of the over $ 7 billion gas pipeline by mid-2007. The proposed project is expected to be completed by 2010, which will initially carry 90 million cubic metres of gas per day. One third of this gas would be for Pakistan and the rest would go to India. The volume of gas would be raised to 150 million cubic metres in three to four years. The next meeting of oil ministers of both the sides will be held in February to review progress, and issues like transportation tariff, transit fee payable to Pakistan, system configuration, pipeline route and pricing mechanism would be dealt with by forming a technical sub-working group.
When completed, this energy corridor can prove to be a significant confidence-building measure between India and Pakistan. Given the sluggish pace of the ongoing peace process that runs the risk of eventually causing diplomatic fatigue across the borders, the pipeline project can inject some fresh vigour and life into the whole process. More than anything else, economic interdependence can help in the resolution of contentious issues like Kashmir. In addition, Pakistan would be able to import gas from Iran at a relatively low cost as according to recent estimates, Pakistan’s gas shortfall will reach 400 million cubic feet per day in 2010, and increase to four billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2025, in the light of our present economic growth rate. Further, Pakistan will also get millions of dollars as transit fees on the gas which flows to India across its territory. For Iran it could be a chance to come out of its isolationist shell.
Despite all the apparent windfalls, however, the moot question is whether the pipeline would materialise in the face of open hostility from the world’s sole superpower or would India and Pakistan succumb to pressure? Though the independence and strong commitment exhibited by India and Pakistan is very commendable, the important thing is that they persist in their stance. The sword of the US’s Iran Libya Sanctions Act against any company or country that invests more than $ 20 million in the Iranian oil business would be hanging not only over India and Pakistan, but also upon anyone ready to invest in the project. Russia has lately evinced interest in the IPI pipeline project and if China also decides to partake of the benefits of the gas pipeline, this may serve as the balancing factor and provide the counterweight both India and Pakistan would need in case of US opposition. As poverty-stricken South Asia’s economies have barely taken off, it is not advisable on the part of the US to vent its ire against Tehran by opposing a critical project for both Pakistan and India. |
